The cyclically adjusted price-earnings (cape) ratio, a measure of value popularised by Robert Shiller of Yale University, has only twice been higher than it is now
[Adverb] in a cyclic manner; in cycles; periodically
A key strut to this thinking is that the earnings yield—the inverse of the price-earnings ratio—is a decent forecast of expected returns on equities.
NOUN A strut is a piece of wood or metal which holds the weight of other pieces in a building or other structure.
An empirical study in 1988 by Mr Shiller and John Campbell found that yields on equities help predict long-term returns.
Based on, concerned with, or verifiable by observation or experience rather than theory or pure logic.
If stock prices are high relative to a measure of fundamental value, such as earnings, then subsequent returns tend to be low, and vice versa.
Coming after something in time; following.
PHRASE Vice versa is used to indicate that the reverse of what you have said is true. For example `women may bring their husbands with them, and vice versa’ means that men may also bring their wives with them.
If you think this is trivial, consider the following.
Of little value or importance.
All else being equal, you should be less keen to hold equities (or keener to hold fewer equities) the lower the earnings yield is.
ADJ mainly BRIT If you are keen on doing something, you very much want to do it.
The chart shows a crude measure of this risk premium.
In a natural or raw state; not yet processed or refined.
It varies over time in large part because risk appetite varies over time.
A natural desire to satisfy a bodily need, especially for food.
A jump in real long-term interest rates worldwide would upset the whole constellation of high asset prices.
A group of stars forming a recognizable pattern that is traditionally named after its apparent form or identified with a mythological figure. Modern astronomers divide the sky into eighty-eight constellations with defined boundaries.
It is hard to be confident that this is forthcoming.
Planned for or about to happen in the near future.